VettaFi | Advisor Perspectives

The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.

Today, one in three of the 65-69 cohort, one in five of the 70-74 cohort, and nearly one in ten of the 75+ cohort are in the labor force.

The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the civilian labor force (people aged 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the civilian non-institutional population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). As of February, the labor force participation rate is at 62.4%, down from 62.6% the previous month and the lowest level since January 2023.

Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for February. The unemployment rate inched up to 4.1%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 151,000.

Wholesale inflation eased significantly in February, slowing more than expected. The producer price index for final demand was flat month-over-month, down from 0.6% in January and lower than the 0.3% forecast. On an annual basis, headline PPI increased 3.2%, down from 3.7% in January and below the 3.3% forecast.

In the week ending March 8th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 220,000. This represents a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was lower than the 226,000 forecast.

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) release for February puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 2.82%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.73% average since the end of the Second World War. Additionally, inflation now sits below the 10-year moving average which is now at 2.93%.

Bitcoin's closing price dropped below $80,000 this week, hitting its lowest level in six months. BTC is down ~12% year to date and ~22% below its record high.

Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.

Inflation cooled for the first time in five months in February. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.8% year-over-year, lower than the expected 2.9% growth. Core CPI also came in lower than expected, cooling to 3.1% year-over-year.

Six of the nine indexes on our emerging markets watch list have posted gains through March 10, 2025. Russia's MOEX is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 11.1%. Chile's IPSA is in second with a year to date gain of 10.1% while South Korea's KOSPI is in third with a year to date gain of 8.84%.

The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report showed that job openings rose more than expected in January, while hiring and quits also edged higher. Vacancies increased to 7.740 million, up from December's downwardly revised 7.508 million. The January figure came in above the expected 7.650 million.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped for a second straight month, falling to 100.7 in February. While optimism among small business owners moderated last month, uncertainty spiked to its second highest reading of all time.

Multiple jobholders account for 5.5% of civilian employment, the highest level since 2009. The survey captures data for four subcategories of the multi-job workforce, the relative sizes of which we've illustrated in a pie chart.

Let's take a close look at February's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 82.5% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 17.5% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).

What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?

There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In February, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 151,000, while the unemployment rate inched up to 4.1%.

Travel on all roads and streets increased in December. The 12-month moving average was up 0.13% month-over-month and was up 0.99% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.07% MoM and up 0.38% YoY.

The moving average for vehicle sales per capita series peaked in August 1978. Fast forward more than 45 years, it is now down 37.2% from that peak.

The latest employment report showed that 151,000 jobs were added in February, falling short of the expected 159,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate unexpectedly inched up to 4.1%.

Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $16,440 for an annualized real return of 9.98%.

Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. This analysis focuses on the P/E10 ratio, key indicator of market valuation, and its correlation with inflation and the 10-year Treasury yield.

The U.S. trade deficit widened more than expected, as a surge in imports exceeded a smaller increase in exports. In January, the trade deficit expanded 34.0% to -$131.4B, the largest one month jump since 2015 and the largest deficit on record. 

In the week ending March 1st, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 221,000. This represents a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was lower than the 234,000 forecast.

The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes reached a new all-time high in December 2024 but has retreated from it the past few months. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical bull and bear market trends in market performance.

Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.

• The Crestmont Research P/E ratio
• The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor
• The Q ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost
• The relationship of the S&P composite price to a regression trendline

Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 27.9 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 37.1.

With the Q4 GDP second estimate and the February close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 205.0%, down slightly from the previous quarter.

Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the February 2025 close.

Based on the February S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 40.8 is 169% above its arithmetic mean, 179% above its geometric mean, and is in the 99th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its February Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 53.5—above the forecast of 52.5. This marks the eighth consecutive month of expansion despite anxieties over tariffs and federal spending cuts.

The February U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 51.0, higher than the 49.7 forecast. The reading marks the 25th consecutive month of expansion but is the slowest growth since November 2023.

The ADP employment report revealed that 77,000 nonfarm private jobs were added in February, the fewest amount since July. The latest reading was lower than the expected 141,000 addition.

The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. The latest Q-ratio is at 1.81, down from 1.84 in January.

At the end of February, the inflation-adjusted S&P Composite Index was 178% above its long-term trend, up from 177% in January and just below its record high of 185% in December.

The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations, ranging from a peak of 15.68% in October 1981, during the height of the Volcker era, to a historic low of 0.55% in August 2020, amidst the economic uncertainty of the pandemic. As of February 28, 2025, the weekly average stood at 4.31%.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 50.3 in February, indicating marginal expansion in U.S. manufacturing for a second straight month. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of 50.6.

The U.S. manufacturing sector grew at its fastest rate since June 2022 in February. The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI rose for a second straight month to 52.7, exceeding the 51.6 forecast.

With the release of January's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.84% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.51% when we adjust for inflation, the largest monthly gain in a year. The year-over-year metrics are 3.58% nominal and 1.05% real, the lowest level since 2022.

The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for January showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.6%. The January core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 3.3%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.

The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) rose for a second straight month in February but remains historically low. The index increased to 45.5 from 39.5 in January, surpassing the 40.5 forecast. The index remained in contraction territory for a 15th consecutive month.

The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report showed inflation remained elevated at the start of 2025. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, rose 2.5% year-over-year in January and 0.3% from December, as expected.

Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.7% in January and is up 4.0% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.4% month-over-month and up 1.5% year-over-year.

The second estimate for Q4 GDP came in at 2.35%, a deceleration from 3.07% for the Q3 final estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 1.71%, a slowdown from 2.22% for the Q3 headline number.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q4 GDP second estimate, three of the four components made positive contributions.

New orders for manufactured durable goods rose to $286.00B in January. This represents a 3.1% increase from the previous month and a 3.4% rise from one year ago. The latest reading was better than the expected 2.0% growth.

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index fell more than expected in January, dropping to its lowest level on record. The index came in at 70.6, a 4.6% decline from the previous month and a 5.2% drop from one year ago. Pending home sales were expected to fall 0.9% month-over-month.

The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey continued to decline in February, with the composite index remaining at -5, unchanged from January. Despite this, future expectations stayed positive, though they dipped slightly from 15 in January to 14 in February.

Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.3% in Q4 2024, according to the second estimate. The latest estimate was consistent with the forecast and is slower than the Q3 final estimate of 3.1%.

Consumer attitudes are measured by two monthly surveys: the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). In February, the MCSI fell to 64.7, its lowest level in fifteen months. Meanwhile, the CCI experienced its sharpest decline since 2021, falling to 98.3.

New home sales fell more than expected while prices jumped to a two-year high last month. According to the Census Bureau, new home sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000 in January, below the 679,000 forecast. This represents a 10.5% decline from December's upwardly revised rate of 734,000 and a 1.1% drop from one year ago.

Fifth district manufacturing activity improved in February, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index rose to 6 this month from -4 in January, the largest one month increase in over three years. This month's reading was better than the forecast of -3 and is the highest reading since April 2022.

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® dropped sharply in February, falling for a third straight month. The index decreased to 98.3 this month from January's upwardly revised 105.3. This month's reading was worse than the 102.7 forecast.

Home prices continued to trend upwards in December as the benchmark national index rose for a 23rd consecutive month to a new all-time high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.5% increase MoM, and a 4.0% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.2% and YoY fell to -0.8%.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) rose to 436.1 in December, reaching a new all-time high. U.S. house prices were up 0.4% from the previous month and up 4.7% from one year ago. However, after adjusting for inflation, the real index was lower at 201.8, a record high. Real house prices were flat month-over-month and up 2.8% year-over-year.

The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for February. The general business activity index came in at -8.3 after rising notably in January. This marks a 22.4 point decline from the previous month, the sharpest monthly drop since March 2020.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to -0.03 in January from +0.18 in December. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from December and one category made a negative contributions in January.

Existing home sales started the year with their first decline in four months. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales retreated 4.9% from December, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.08 million units in January.

In January, nominal home values rose for the 22nd consecutive month, reaching a new all-time high, according to the Zillow Home Value Index. However, after adjusting for inflation, real home values declined for the ninth straight month, hitting their lowest level since May 2021.

The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed continued expansion though activity declined. In February, the index fell to 18.1 from 44.3 in January, the largest monthly drop since 2020. The latest reading was lower than the forecast of 19.4.

Household debt increased by $93 billion (0.52%) in Q4 2024, reaching $18.04 trillion. While all debt categories saw quarterly gains, the overall rise was primarily driven by credit card debt.

This series has been updated to include the January release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $51,657, down 7.0% from over 50 years ago.

The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q4 2024 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.7%, up from Q3 but practically unchanged from a year ago.

The Federal Reserve concluded its first meeting of 2025 by keeping the federal funds rate (FFR) at 4.25-4.50%, marking the first time in four meetings that the Fed has not cut interest rates.

Earlier this week we posted an update on the median household income for the 50 states and DC which includes annual data from 1984 to 2023. Let's now look at the actual purchasing power of those median incomes. For this adjustment, we're using the "C2ER Cost of Living Index" produced by C2ER, the Council for Community and Economic Research.

The median US income in 2023 was $80,610, up from $22,420 in 1984 — a 260% rise over the 39-year time frame. However, if we adjust for inflation chained in 2023 dollars, the 1984 median is $55,828, and the increase drops to 37%.

What is the relationship between education and household income? The Census Bureau’s 2023 annual survey data provides valuable insights into this question. The median household income for individuals aged 25 and older was $82,010, but how does this figure vary based on educational attainment?

The median household is the statistical center of the Middle Class. Let's take a closer look at the Census Bureau's latest annual household income data with a focus on middle class income. In this update, we'll focus on the growing gap between the median (middle) and mean (average) household incomes across the complete time frame of the Census Bureau's annual reporting from 1867 to 2023.

Our commentary on household income distribution offers some fascinating insights into average U.S. household incomes, but misses the implications of age for income. In this update, we examine household income with a focus on age bracket.

A few months ago, the Census Bureau released its annual report on household income data for 2023. During 2023, the median (middle) average household income rose 8.0% to $80,730. Let's take a closer look at the quintile averages, which dates from 1967, along with the statistics for the top 5%.

In the week ending January 4th, initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since February 2024. Initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 201,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was better than the 214,000 forecast.

This chart series features an overlay of four major secular bear markets: the Crash of 1929, the Oil Embargo of 1973, the Tech Bubble, and the Financial Crisis. The numbers are through the December 31, 2024 close.

With 2024 behind us, let's revisit the top 10 most-read charts of the year.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased slightly in November. The index rose 0.3% from the previous month to 99.7 after eight consecutive monthly declines.

As 2023 comes to an end, let’s revisit the top 10 most-read AP charts of the year.

The latest Underlying Inflation Gauge full data set for September is 2.9%, down 0.1% from last month, while the prices-only measure is 2.2%, down 0.2% from last month. Current Headline CPI is now 3.7% and Core CPI is 4.2%.

Five out of the 12 Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. The September average of the five districts is -6.5, down from the previous month.

We've updated our periodic look at the Philly Fed ADS Index which includes real GDP (Q2 2023 third estimate) and initial jobless claims through 9/23.

The Census Bureau has posted its advance report on new orders for durable goods for August. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let's review durable goods data with those two adjustments.

The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from July. All four categories made negative contributions in August.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development published their August findings for new residential housing starts and building permits. Over the long haul, the two series offer a compelling study of trends in residential real estate. Here is an overlay of the two series since the 1959 inception of the starts and permits data, which was tracked beginning a year later.

The latest monthly employment report showed 187,000 nonfarm jobs were added in August. An industry breakdown of that number shows a gain of 151,000 service-providing jobs and a gain of 36,000 goods-producing jobs.

Here's the top 10 most popular AP Charts of 2022.