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Buffett Valuation Indicator: May 2026

Following the Q1 GDP second estimate, the 'Buffett Indicator'—the ratio of corporate equities to GDP—now stands at 229.7%. This marks the second-highest reading in history, eclipsed only by the previous quarter.

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Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin Sinks Below $70K

Bitcoin struggled for a third straight week, dropping below $70,000 for the first time since early April. BTC is currently down approximately 24% year-to-date and sits ~47% below its October 2025 record high.

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ISM Services PMI: Continued Expansion in May

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its May Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 54.5. This was higher than the forecast of 53.7 and keeps the index in expansion territory for a 23rd consecutive month.

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S&P Global Services PMI: Slower Expansion in May

The May U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global inched down 0.3 points to 50.7, indicating slower expansion in the services sector. The latest reading was lower than the forecast of 50.9 and was among the weakest months of expansion in the past 2.5 years.

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ADP National Employment Report: 122K Private Jobs Added in May

The ADP employment report revealed that 122,000 nonfarm private jobs were added in May, the largest monthly growth since January 2025. The latest figure was just above the projected 118,000 addition.

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Gas Prices Drop to 1-Month Low

Gas prices fell for a third straight week, reaching their lowest level since late April. As of June 1st, weekly prices were down 17 cents for regular and down 14 cents for premium gasoline.

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Market Valuation: Is the Market Still Overvalued?

Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.

  • The Crestmont Research P/E ratio
  • The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor
  • The Q ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost
  • The relationship of the S&P composite price to a regression trendline
dshort: AP Charts & Analysis

Crestmont P/E and Market Valuation: May 2026

Based on May's S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 43.8 is 185% above its arithmetic mean, 213% above its geometric mean, and is in the 100th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.

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Q-Ratio and Market Valuation: May 2026

The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. As of May 2026, the latest Q-ratio is at 2.11, the highest level in history.

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P/E10 and Market Valuation: May 2026

Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 25.9 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 39.9, the highest level since 2000.

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Regression to Trend: S&P Composite 207% Above Trend in May

The inflation-adjusted S&P Composite Index was 207% above its long-term trend at the end of May.

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Job Openings Jump to Near 2-Year High in April

Job openings jumped to their highest level in nearly two years in April, reaching 7.618 million vacancies according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). This represents an increase of 731,000 from the previous month, the largest monthly rise since 2021.

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World Markets Watchlist: June 1, 2026

Five of the nine indexes on our world markets watch list posted year-to-date gains through June 1, 2026.

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10-Year Treasury Yield Long-Term Perspective: May 2026

The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations, ranging from a peak of 15.68% in October 1981, during the height of the Volcker era, to a historic low of 0.55% in August 2020, amidst the economic uncertainty of the pandemic. At the end of May 2026, the weekly average stood at 4.47%.

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ISM Manufacturing PMI: Highest Level Since May 2022

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 54.0 in May, marking the fastest expansion for the index since May 2022. The latest reading was higher than the 53.3 forecast and is the index's fifth straight month in expansion territory.