Following the Q1 GDP second estimate, the 'Buffett Indicator'—the ratio of corporate equities to GDP—now stands at 229.7%. This marks the second-highest reading in history, eclipsed only by the previous quarter.
Bitcoin struggled for a third straight week, dropping below $70,000 for the first time since early April. BTC is currently down approximately 24% year-to-date and sits ~47% below its October 2025 record high.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its May Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 54.5. This was higher than the forecast of 53.7 and keeps the index in expansion territory for a 23rd consecutive month.
The May U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global inched down 0.3 points to 50.7, indicating slower expansion in the services sector. The latest reading was lower than the forecast of 50.9 and was among the weakest months of expansion in the past 2.5 years.
The ADP employment report revealed that 122,000 nonfarm private jobs were added in May, the largest monthly growth since January 2025. The latest figure was just above the projected 118,000 addition.
Gas prices fell for a third straight week, reaching their lowest level since late April. As of June 1st, weekly prices were down 17 cents for regular and down 14 cents for premium gasoline.
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
Based on May's S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 43.8 is 185% above its arithmetic mean, 213% above its geometric mean, and is in the 100th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.
The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. As of May 2026, the latest Q-ratio is at 2.11, the highest level in history.
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 25.9 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 39.9, the highest level since 2000.
The inflation-adjusted S&P Composite Index was 207% above its long-term trend at the end of May.
Job openings jumped to their highest level in nearly two years in April, reaching 7.618 million vacancies according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). This represents an increase of 731,000 from the previous month, the largest monthly rise since 2021.
Five of the nine indexes on our world markets watch list posted year-to-date gains through June 1, 2026.
The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations, ranging from a peak of 15.68% in October 1981, during the height of the Volcker era, to a historic low of 0.55% in August 2020, amidst the economic uncertainty of the pandemic. At the end of May 2026, the weekly average stood at 4.47%.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 54.0 in May, marking the fastest expansion for the index since May 2022. The latest reading was higher than the 53.3 forecast and is the index's fifth straight month in expansion territory.
U.S. manufacturing hit its highest level in four years, as the S&P Global PMI climbed 0.6 points to 55.1 in May. For a second straight month, the expansion was largely driven by defensive stockpiling as companies continue bracing for supply disruptions and price hikes linked to conflict in the Middle East.
Last week’s data tracked a shifting economic trajectory over the last several months. While the latest reading on first-quarter GDP confirms the economy started the year with steady growth, subsequent inflation metrics moved higher and ultimately weighed on consumer confidence.
Valid until the market close on June 30, 2026
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Building on the last week's strength, the S&P 500 rose every day this week and set multiple new record highs. With a 1.6% weekly increase, the index secured its ninth straight weekly gain, matching its longest winning streak from 2023.
The yield on the 10-year note finished May 29, 2026 at 4.45% while the 2-year note ended at 3.98%.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index surged 13.5 points in May to a four-year high of 62.7, signaling an expansion in regional business activity. This marks the largest monthly increase since 2020 and was significantly higher than the projected 50.6.
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.
The second estimate for Q1 GDP came in at 1.62%, an acceleration from 0.48% for the Q4 final estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 1.44%, a pickup from 0.18% for the Q4 headline number.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q1 2026 GDP second estimate, three of the four components made positive contributions.
Inflation remains a hot topic, directly impacting everything from your grocery bill to interest rates. As of the latest data, two key inflation gauges — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — show that prices are still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the core PCE at 3.3% and core CPI at 2.8%.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was down 0.05% in April and was up 2.68% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was down 0.44% month-over-month and down 1.04% year-over-year.
New home sales fell more than expected in April while the median price experienced its largest jump in seven years.
With the release of April's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. To two decimal places, disposable income per capita was up down 0.10% month-over-month. But when adjusted for inflation, real disposable income per capita was down 0.50%.
New orders for manufactured durable goods jumped 7.9% in April to $345.96B, almost twice as much as the projected 4.0% monthly growth.
U.S. economic growth rebounded at the beginning of 2026, according to the BEA’s latest estimate. Real GDP rose at 1.6% annual rate in Q1, falling short of the 2.0% forecast but marking an acceleration from the 0.5% final estimate seen in Q4 of last year.
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, climbed 3.3% year-over-year in April. This marks the highest level since November 2023 and marks a steady pickup from March's 3.2% reading. On a monthly basis, core prices rose 0.2%.
In the week ending May 23rd, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 215,000. This represents an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's figure and was higher than the forecast of 211,000.
What are consumers thinking about the economy? Their collective mood offers crucial clues for businesses, investors, and policymakers alike. In May, the two leading benchmarks, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), offered similar views with both retreating amid ongoing inflation concerns.
Fifth district manufacturing activity increased in May according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index rose ten points points to 13, marking the highest level in nearly five years. This month's reading was above the forecast of 4.
The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for May. The general business activity index rose 2.7 points to 0.4, indicating slower growth of manufacturing activity and stable business conditions perceptions.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® fell for the first time in four months in May, dropping 0.7 points to 93.1. Despite the slight dip, the index came in above the forecast of 91.9.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.14 in April from -0.15 in March. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from March, and two categories made positive contributions.
Home prices fell for the first time in eight months in March according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller index, as the housing slowdown intensifies. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the national index dropped 0.2% month-over-month and was up 0.7% year-over-year, the slowest pace since June 2023.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI) reached a new record high in March, rising 0.1% to 441.6.
There is currently a stark contrast between everyday consumer confidence and financial market behavior. On one hand, persistent inflation and elevated living costs have driven consumer sentiment to historic lows. On the other hand, financial market participants are exhibiting aggressive risk appetite, with margin debt surging to an all-time high record on the heels of major equity market gains.
Consumer sentiment sank for a third straight month to another record low amid intense cost of living concerns and stubbornly high prices. The final May reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 44.8, marking a 5-point drop from April and falling well below the month's preliminary estimate of 48.2.
Home values continued their upward trend in April, according to the Zillow Home Value Index. However, after adjusting for inflation, real home values dropped sharply, remaining at their lowest level in over five years.
The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey revealed regional activity continued to increase in May. The composite index came in at 8 this month, down slightly from 10 in April but still indicating continued expansion.
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed activity weakened in May, with the index sinking 27.1 points to -0.4. The latest reading marked the lowest level for the index this year and was worse than the forecast of 17.6.
Building permits rose 5.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.442 million. The latest reading exceeded the forecast of 1.380 million.
Housing starts fell 2.8% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.465 million. The latest reading exceeded the projected 1.420 million.
Margin debt rose for the first time in three months to a record high in April, coming in at $1.30 trillion. This marked a 6.8% increase from March and a 53.3% rise compared to the previous year.
Gas prices were relatively flat this week, remaining at their highest level in nearly four years. As of May 18th, weekly prices were down 1 cent for regular and were unchanged for premium.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index rose 1.4% in April to 74.8, markings its third consecutive increase and highest level since November.
Builder confidence posted a modest gain in May despite persistent affordability challenges and economic uncertainty. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) rose 3 points from April to 37 this month, marking the 25th consecutive negative reading.
