Markets have long struggled to price geopolitical risk. Part of the issue is that each flare-up tends to be viewed as a one-off volatility jolt to be weathered and then faded once there is resolution.
Barely a month into 2026, markets have already weathered multiple bouts of rolling, event‑driven volatility. Geopolitical surprises and policy pivots have triggered sharp price moves from the U.S. to Japan to Europe, from sovereign bonds to currencies to mortgages.
Marc Seidner, CIO of Non-traditional Strategies, explores opportunities across equities, bonds, credit, and commodities that have the potential to offer investors resilience and diversification.
Mortgage bond reinvestment could be the Federal Reserve’s most effective and immediate tool to unlock the housing market – without even touching interest rates.
Investors enjoyed broad gains across major asset classes in the first half of this year, but they endured considerable market swings to earn those returns.
Rapid U.S. policy changes pose challenges for investors accustomed to a global financial system anchored in U.S. markets and assets.
Lofty U.S. stock valuations call for a renewed focus on risk assessment and portfolio diversification.
Amid concerns about the impact of rising deficits on U.S. Treasuries, it helps to differentiate bond investments by maturity, credit rating, and global relative value.
Balanced risks to inflation and employment indicate it’s time for the Fed to normalize interest rates, enhancing a positive backdrop for bonds.
In this PIMCO Perspectives, we explore the dispersion playing out across monetary policy and financial markets.
This PIMCO Perspectives assesses how the term premium’s 40-year downturn could start to reverse.
Strength in employment and inflation has caused markets to raise the implied terminal rate while still expecting the Fed to normalize policy – which is different from easing – in 2024.
How we’re thinking about investing against a backdrop of inflation uncertainty, geopolitical tension, and likely recession.
Uncertainty always exists in financial markets.
As regulators push to transition away from Libor, sales of Treasuries linked to the successor rate could boost the new benchmark’s credibility and expand nascent markets for related debt and derivatives.
Longer-dated Treasury yields have climbed as markets consider whether economic growth and inflation expectations might accelerate more rapidly. We believe inflation pressures will remain in check and bond yields will be range-bound.
How can investors navigate volatility arising from late-cycle fiscal stimulus?
Untethered to traditional bond benchmarks, unconstrained bond strategies can respond to current changing market conditions in various ways.
