Global equity markets moved modestly higher this week as first-quarter earnings season continued to deliver strong results.
The conflict in the Middle East remained a key driver of market sentiment this week, with rapidly shifting headlines contributing to heightened volatility.
Geopolitical headlines rarely arrive quietly. The recent escalation in the Middle East is a reminder of how quickly tensions can feel destabilizing.
The ongoing conflict involving Iran and the disruption to energy markets has moved beyond headline risk and is now influencing expectations for growth, inflation and policy. As of March 9, oil prices briefly breached the $100 per barrel threshold — a development that shifts the macro conversation compared to last week.
Energy markets drove this week’s market volatility, with the conflict in Iran triggering a sharp rise in oil and natural gas prices. Through Thursday’s close, West Texas Intermediate crude oil was up roughly 17% from last Friday, pushing prices close to $80 per barrel.
Markets are responding primarily to uncertainty, with oil prices rising and equities volatile. The economic impact will depend largely on energy supply disruption, particularly whether oil prices remain contained or move sharply higher.
The U.S. is on the back end of fourth-quarter earnings season, and the overall tone from corporate management teams has been constructive. For the S&P 500 Index, earnings growth tracked close to 15% year-over-year, marking a fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.
It was a volatile week in financial markets, largely driven by geopolitical developments. Last weekend, the U.S. administration proposed new tariffs on several European countries linked to tensions around Greenland.
The U.S. and global economy remain on solid footing. We don’t believe recent geopolitical developments pose a systemic risk to markets at this time
This week’s data presented a mixed picture of the U.S. economy as investors look ahead to the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting next week.
The latest U.S. economic data continues to paint a mixed picture. Private-sector employment from payroll processor ADP showed a return to modest job growth in October following a brief contraction.
On this week’s edition of Market Week in Review, Global Chief Investment Strategist Paul Eitelman assessed the health of the U.S. economy amid the ongoing government shutdown.
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) cut interest rates by 0.25% today in a decision widely expected by investors. More notably, the central bank’s forecasts reveal a committee starkly divided on the path forward for rates.
On this week’s edition of Market Week in Review, Global Chief Investment Strategist Paul Eitelman discussed new records for the U.S. stock market as well as the resilience of the American economy. He also covered bond-market volatility in Japan, France and the UK.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Global Chief Investment Strategist Paul Eitelman recapped the stock market’s latest record-setting run. He also dug into the health of the global economy and the latest inflation numbers from the United States.
On this week’s edition of Market Week in Review, Global Chief Investment Strategist Paul Eitelman discussed key drivers behind the stock market rally.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Global Chief Investment Strategist Paul Eitelman explored key drivers behind the strong performance in markets. He also provided an update on a proposed U.S. tax measure.
America’s fiscal woes are nothing to sneeze at, but they’re also nothing new. Which is why we expect markets to largely shrug off the latest credit-rating cut.
The Fed’s in a bind. Policy uncertainty is high. And tariffs are likely to hit the U.S. economy with a “stagflation-lite” impulse in coming quarters—weaker growth and higher prices.
Eitelman began by assessing the health of the U.S. economy through hard and soft data. He explained that hard data refers to measures of actual spending and economic activity, while soft data refers to how companies and consumers respond to surveys.
Talk of a recession is everywhere. The case is simple: Liberation Day delivered the biggest increase in tariffs in a century. Consumer prices will rise. Purchasing power will decline. Recession…right?
After several weeks of steep selloffs, the major averages roared back on Wednesday as the Trump administration announced a 90-day pause on its reciprocal tariffs.
U.S. stocks underperformed in the first quarter of 2025, hit by a double whammy from intensifying policy uncertainty and a U-turn in select mega cap stocks.
he central bank made a technical move on the balance sheet, reducing the pace of permitted runoff in its Treasury holdings from $25 to $5 billion per month.
Stocks rebounded on Wednesday as core inflation in the United States came in below consensus expectations and news of a possible 30-day truce in the Russia-Ukraine war emerged. Big tech stocks also recovered after flirting with bear-market territory earlier this week.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Senior Director & Chief Investment Strategist for North America Paul Eitelman discussed the main themes from U.S. 4Q 2024 earnings season, and provided a U.S. trade policy update & recent announcements from global central banks.
U.S. Treasury yields have increased notably since September, particularly at the long end of the curve, with the 10-year yield up over 100 basis points from its recent lows. We unpack the drivers behind this big move in rates and our outlook for bonds going forward.
On the inaugural edition of Market Week in Review for 2025, Senior Director and Chief Investment Strategist for North America, Paul Eitelman, discussed Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation as well as the latest batch of U.S. and global economic data.
U.S. policies are set for a major reshaping as full Republican control takes hold in 2025.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Chief Investment Strategist for North America, Paul Eitelman, discussed key watchpoints for investors in the wake of the U.S. elections. He also explained how the election results are impacting markets, and finished with an update on the latest monetary policy decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE).
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Chief Investment Strategist for North America, Paul Eitelman, discussed the details surrounding China’s latest stimulus announcements. He also reviewed early U.S. third-quarter earnings results as well as the latest U.S. macroeconomic data.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Senior Director and Chief Investment Strategist for North America, Paul Eitelman, and Head of AIS Portfolio & Business Consulting, Sophie Antal-Gilbert, discussed the rally in Chinese equities.
We expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points at each of its remaining meetings in 2024 and to sustain that pace into 2025. This trajectory would get the Fed down to our estimate of the normal or equilibrium rate of interest of 3%-3.25% this time next year.
A negative market reaction was triggered by a sharp selloff in Japanese stocks into the close earlier [Monday], with the Topix and Nikkei indices suffering 12% declines – their worst day since 1987. The selloff cascaded through global markets with the EuroStoxx 600 trading down over 3% on Monday and S&P 500 down about 3%.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Senior Director and Chief Investment Strategist for North America, Paul Eitelman, and Regional Director for North America Advisor & Intermediary Solutions, Lam Guluka, discussed key market themes from the second quarter.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Chief Investment Strategist for North America, Paul Eitelman, and Equity Manager Research Analyst Michelle Batjargal discussed the results of first-quarter earnings season around the globe.
Our investment leadership team convened twice on Sunday to discuss the conflict between Iran and Israel, its key watchpoints in the days ahead, and the pertinent risks onto markets, our investment portfolios, and our clients. The team broadly agreed that maintaining a slightly defensive posture across portfolio strategies remained appropriate.
The consumer price index (CPI) for January showed that core inflation held steady at a rate of 3.9% last month, a small setback in a trend of moderating inflation in the U.S. Healing in global supply chains and a rebalancing of the U.S. labor market have helped to dramatically tame inflation over the past year.
There will be a lot of firsts for the economic history books if this business cycle can survive a labor market slowdown, 525 basis points (bps) of rate hikes and an extremely inverted U.S. Treasury yield curve.
The global economy is still overwhelmingly powered by fossil fuels, with more than 80% of primary energy sourced from coal, oil, and gas, as of 2021.
There is broad agreement that economic damages will increase with warming, but there is substantial disagreement on the magnitude of these damages.
Fossil fuels, particularly oil, are difficult to replace due to their availability, affordability and energy density. Low-carbon alternatives, like solar energy, need large amounts of space to produce comparable amounts of energy to oil.
A transition away from fossil fuels is likely required to avert a significant warming of the planet. Rising temperatures could lead to crop failures, storm intensification, ocean acidification and deoxygenation, and infrastructure damage, among several other risks.
A transition away from fossil fuels is likely required to avert a significant warming of the planet. The primary risk to markets is the energy transition itself, which would require substantial capital expenditures.
Negotiations among lawmakers in Washington, D.C., to raise the debt ceiling might trend in a more favorable direction.
In a closely watched decision, the Fed lifted its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5% at the conclusion of its March policy meeting.
At the conclusion of its inaugural policy meeting of 2023 today, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a smaller, quarter-point rate hike, as widely expected by markets.
Is a recession lurking around the corner in 2023? If so, how might it impact defined benefit (DB) plan sponsors—and what steps, if any, should they consider taking?
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Chief Investment Strategist for North America, Paul Eitelman, and Research Analyst Laura Bardewyck reviewed early results from second-quarter earnings season.
