Geopolitical risks are still lingering in the background, but the story lately has been all about earnings. A strong 1Q26 season, paired with a steady drumbeat of upbeat management commentary, has helped push the S&P 500 to 21 record highs this year.
Despite headwinds from rising oil prices, fundamentals have remained strong. The S&P 500 has notched 18 record highs year to date and, more importantly, surpassed our prior target of 7,250. Following a standout 1Q earnings season, we are raising our 2026 earnings per share (EPS) estimate to $326 from $300.
Leadership transitions at the Federal Reserve (Fed) are rare. Only seven individuals have served as Fed chair since the 1970s, underscoring how infrequent turnover is at the Fed’s top job. That rarity is why investors pay close attention when a new chair is appointed, especially when the incoming leader brings a different perspective. Kevin Warsh has been a vocal critic of Fed policy and communication in recent years.
With 82% of market cap having reported, the S&P 500 is on track for 27% year-over-year earnings per share (EPS) growth, the strongest since 4Q21. More than 84% have beaten earnings estimates − the most since 1Q21 − while earnings revisions are up 12%, the fastest pace in four years.
While oil prices are likely to remain elevated in the near term, we do not view the current disruption as a lasting supply shock. A diplomatic resolution, or even progress toward one, should help bring prices lower by year-end. Although higher oil prices are a headwind, we believe both the economy and equity markets can absorb the impact with limited damage, as underlying fundamentals remain strong.
The index is on the verge of doubling for the first time in this bull market – currently up ~99% – a move that would take just under 3.5 years, slightly faster than the historical average of 3.9 years. While all sectors are in positive territory over this period, leadership has been narrow with only three – technology, communication services and industrials – posting gains above 100%.
After a 9.1% drawdown, the S&P 500 surged 11% over the last 12 trading days to a new record high, breaking above the 7,000 level for the first time.
Over the past year, markets have been shaped by rapid advances in AI, elevated geopolitical tensions – especially involving Iran – and persistent uncertainty around global trade. In environments like this, successful investing rarely comes from chasing headlines or reacting emotionally. It’s about discipline, staying anchored to fundamentals and executing a clear long‑term game plan.
Recent weeks have been a whirlwind of headlines centered on the Middle East conflict and rising oil and gas prices, particularly as the conflict enters its fourth full week.
Rapid advances in artificial intelligence, persistent geopolitical tensions – particularly the conflict in Iran – and ongoing trade uncertainty have kept headlines loud and emotions elevated, ultimately demanding investors remain adaptive and disciplined. In this kind of environment, the biggest mistakes come from reacting to noise rather than fundamentals.
The key swing factor remains oil prices. If the conflict ends within this window, we still expect only limited impacts on our economic and asset‑class outlooks.
The Fed’s new economic projections are fraught with even more uncertainty. The Middle East conflict is unlikely to derail growth in a meaningful way.
While senior military officials on both sides have signaled that the campaign may intensify in the near term, keeping headline risks elevated, we outline below why we believe the conflict is likely to be short-lived, and what that could mean for the economy, the Federal Reserve and financial markets in the weeks ahead.
AI-related disruption has moved to the forefront of market conversations in recent weeks, driving shifts beneath the surface. While the S&P 500 remains near all-time highs, leadership has rotated across sectors as concerns about AI’s impact on future demand and long-term valuations have spread.
It’s been a busy start to the midterm election year in Washington, marked by a second government shutdown, rising geopolitical tensions - including Iran and Venezuela – and continued uncertainty around tariffs.
Markets move through phases of resilience, shifting leadership and renewed opportunity. We’ve seen this play out in recent months as performance has broadened beyond mega‑cap tech into areas that had long been overlooked.
Recent tech headlines have stirred up fresh disruption fears, weighing on software stocks and the sector more broadly. Below, we break down key takeaways from 4Q25 earnings and share our latest views on tech:
With rising geopolitical tensions, sharp market swings and Congress at odds over Department of Homeland Security funding – likely to cause a brief government shutdown – there’s no shortage of factors influencing sentiment. Here, we address some of the most prominent headlines shaping sentiment and offer our perspective.
Markets, interestingly enough, felt their own version of a “deep freeze” this week. Geopolitical flare-ups, fresh tariff threats and a mini-meltdown in Japan’s bond market briefly rattled investors and pushed volatility sharply higher.
2026 is coming out of the gate quickly. In just the first two weeks, we’ve seen a flurry of headlines – rapid-fire policy proposals, legal uncertainties, and fast-moving geopolitical developments – all with the potential to influence the economy and financial markets.
As we step into the new year, many of us are setting personal and professional goals for what we hope to accomplish in the months ahead. The same holds true for financial markets, where Wall Street strategists have been busy refining their outlooks for where the S&P 500 might finish the year.
In 2025, the S&P 500 delivered double-digit returns for a third straight year. Heading into the fourth year of the bull market, Raymond James Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam identifies 10 themes to watch in 2026.
Now, as we turn the page to 2026, new challenges await: geopolitical tensions, lofty valuations, and an evolving macro backdrop. That’s why we’re excited to unveil our Ten Themes for 2026, inspired by Mission: Impossible, celebrating the 30th anniversary of its first movie this year.
Before we turn the page on 2025, let’s take a moment to reflect on the key trends that shaped the economy and financial markets this year. Despite heightened policy uncertainty and persistent geopolitical tensions, both proved remarkably resilient.
The Federal Reserve wrapped up its final meeting of 2025, delivering – as expected – its third consecutive rate cut. Policymakers lowered the fed funds rate to a target range of 3.5% to 3.75%, signaling continued support for the economy.
With the Fed's final 2025 meeting approaching, markets anticipate a third rate cut amid labor weakness, though the FOMC remains publicly divided on balancing a cooling job market against sticky inflation.
A mid-month bout of volatility focused primarily on the AI tech giants gave way to a broader rally in November’s final days amidst renewed expectations the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in the coming weeks.
With Thanksgiving around the corner, there’s so much to be thankful for in 2025, especially for investors. After a challenging start to the year, the economy and markets regained their footing quickly, with nearly all asset classes on track for solid gains heading into year-end. Looking ahead, there are reasons for optimism to continue into 2026 as well.
While headlines often speculate about an AI bubble, we believe the long-term outlook for technology remains strong. Periodic volatility is a normal part of any innovation cycle and unlikely to derail our constructive view on equities.
It’s been one year since President Trump secured his second term, and we’re taking stock of how the economy and financial markets have performed during that time, highlighting both the wins and the challenges.
This convergence creates a thrilling, unpredictable day for sports enthusiasts packed with drama. Interestingly, the financial markets are gearing up for their own version of a 'Sports Equinox' week. Just as fans juggle overlapping games on October 27, investors will face a crowded calendar of potentially market-moving events that have our attention.
Tech and its derivatives have led returns thus far. After hefty multiple expansion, earnings will need to take the driver’s seat.
Goodbye summer, hello fall! As the sun sets on another season, we’re swapping beach days and backyard barbeques for crisp mornings, vibrant foliage, football weekends, and everything pumpkin spice.
The Fed operates under a dual mandate: to promote price stability and maximum employment. Lately, employment has taken center stage, prompting the Fed to resume its easing cycle with a 0.25% rate cut this week.
As summer fades and the first hints of fall appear, football fans have reason to celebrate – the new season officially kicked off last night. But while excitement builds on the field, the equity market may be losing steam.
Don’t Worry, Be Happy! Heading into summer, markets faced a wave of uncertainty—from shifting tariffs and debt ceiling debates to questions around the fate of the ‘Big, Beautiful Bill.’
Winding Down The Summer! While summer ‘officially’ lasts until late September, Labor Day marks its ‘unofficial’ close – and it’s fast approaching. That makes now the perfect time to hit the beach, prep and get organized for the school year, or sneak in a last-minute getaway.
The Fed confronts a dilemma as hiring slows while inflation heats up.
Last week brought a wave of headlines for investors to digest – on both the macro and micro fronts.
With the August 1 trade deadline fast approaching, America’s trading partners are racing to finalize agreements in hopes of securing more favorable terms before the higher tariffs announced by President Trump take effect.
Will he or won’t he? That’s the question on investors’ minds as tensions rise between President Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
The sweeping 900-page tax and spending law signed on July 4 introduces a wide array of provisions that touch nearly every American in one way or another.
Tensions in the Middle East and their effect on oil prices have dominated the recent news headlines—and for good reason. A rise in oil prices, especially if it lasts, can push up inflation and slow down economic growth.
The calm before the storm is here – and the Fed knows it won’t last. This week’s Fed meeting is expected to be relatively straightforward.
Sell in May and Go Away? This old market saying tends to resurface around Memorial Day, suggesting investors should scale back their equity exposure ahead of what’s perceived as a seasonally weaker stretch for stocks.
President Trump’s tariff maneuvers sent financial markets on a rollercoaster. The shock from his aggressive trade policies triggered a surge in volatility, briefly pushing the VIX above 50 – an extremely rare event.
The roller coaster continues! A stronger than expected first quarter earnings season and encouraging signs on the trade front—highlighted by the US-UK trade deal—helped lift the S&P 500 from its April 8 near-bear market lows, reversing nearly all post-Liberation Day (April 2) losses.
This week marks the first 100 days of President Trump’s second term in office—and what a rollercoaster it has been for the financial markets! While presidents often enjoy a ‘honeymoon period’ at the start of their tenure, Trump wasted no time ‘flooding the zone’ by pushing forward many of his key initiatives.
Think of the drafting process like investing—scouts meticulously rank players based on their strength, speed, flexibility, and mental acuity, much like we analyze the economy and financial markets to shape our outlook. The true value of these players might take years to unfold...
