Fourth-quarter earnings results have been generally solid so far, albeit a bit weaker relative to prior quarters when it comes to beat rates and price reactions. On the international front, weakening global ties may lead to economic disruption and lasting investment implications. Meanwhile, bond market volatility has remained low despite economic and policy uncertainty.
While occasional bouts of volatility are likely, we expect the fixed income markets to provide ballast for portfolios and are likely to deliver solid returns in 2026.
The federal funds rate will remain 3.5% to 3.75%. While the market still expects two rate cuts late this year, the Fed is likely to tread cautiously given the economic backdrop.
Investors are navigating not just uncertainty, but an unstable environment influenced by tariffs and inflation, among other factors. While volatility may increase, there is likely room for another solid year in 2026, especially for fixed income and international stocks
The Federal Reserve lowered its policy interest rate by 25 basis points, as widely expected. However, Fed Chairman Powell hinted at a pause ahead, and there were several dissents.
We expect 2026 to be another good year for fixed income investors. However, yields that are lower than where they were a year ago and less room for rate cuts by central banks likely will mean less-robust returns.
Answers to questions investors are currently asking about Treasury bonds, tax policy, credit quality and other issues currently affecting fixed income investments.
While stock and bond markets wait for U.S. federal data to become available again, private-sector reports suggest lukewarm overall economic growth.
The Federal Reserve lowered its policy interest rate by 25 basis points, as widely expected. However, dissenting votes may cloud the path forward.
The stock and bond markets are taking the government shutdown—and lack of data releases—in stride, but how long the calm might last is an open question.
As expected, the Federal Reserve cut its short-term interest rate, citing concerns about slowing job growth. Where Fed policy goes from here is less clear.
A Federal Reserve rate cut won't necessarily lower longer-term bond yields or mortgage rates.
The Federal Reserve may cut rates a couple of times by year-end, but the pace and magnitude of easing in 2026 is unclear. There are still some roadblocks to lower bond yields.
U.S. economic growth slowed decisively in the first half of the year amid concern about rising tariffs, although corporate fundamentals have remained strong.
Despite inflation pressure, tariffs and immigration policy are leading to slower job growth and consumer spending, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates soon.
Federal Reserve officials leave short-term interest rates unchanged but appear to open the door for a potential rate cut later this year.
Not sure which to choose? Here are some things to consider about individual bonds vs. bond funds.
The Fed held the federal funds rate steady but noted that the risks of inflation and potentially higher unemployment remained high.
Bouts of volatility may continue in the second half of 2025 as bond market investors navigate evolving tariff policy, U.S. government debt, and economic uncertainty.
Stocks have rebounded since the White House delayed steep tariffs that were announced in early April, but trade policy remains a potential driver of volatility.
The Fed held the federal funds rate steady but noted that the risks of slowing economic growth and higher inflation have risen.
Historically the United States dollar strengthens when U.S. Treasury yields rise. But the reverse happened in April after the White House announced widespread tariffs.
The combination of slowing economic growth and stubborn inflation, combined with uncertainty about U.S. tariff policy, is keeping investors cautious.
The Fed held the federal funds rate steady and signaled two rate cuts this year, despite expecting inflation to remain elevated.
Unpredictable U.S. tariff policy has heightened concerns about a potential U.S. economic recession.
Treasury yields have been falling for weeks. Yet inflation expectations remain high and recent growth data have been fairly strong—not a traditional backdrop for declining yields. What's happening?
Could the U.S. dollar lose its place as the world's reserve currency? Despite a long-term trend toward currency diversification, we don't see the dollar losing dominance anytime soon.
After cutting rates at the past three meetings, it looks like the Federal Reserve has reached a plateau.
Yields may trade in a wide range as markets work through issues in the new year. Navigating volatility may mean capturing higher nominal and real yields over the longer term.
With economic growth rising at a stronger rate than expected for this part of the cycle and inflation holding above the 2.0% target, the Fed appears more cautious about the need for rate cuts.
The bond market is caught between the Federal Reserve's plans to cut interest rates and the risk of higher inflation and federal debt levels.
How will the U.S. dollar respond to Federal Reserve rate cuts? The factors that have supported a strong dollar for years remain largely intact.
Policymakers indicated that more interest rate cuts were likely in coming months.
While the pace of Federal Reserve cuts is in question, all roads lead to lower interest rates.
Bond prices whipsawed over the past month as volatility spiked across markets. What's next for fixed income markets?
What the Fed's monetary-policy tools signal about the market.
The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged at the July meeting, but left the door open to rate cuts later this year.
As expected, the Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged at the June meeting, but left the door open to rate cuts later this year if inflation declines.
Looking into the second half of the year, we are optimistic that returns will be stronger, but also expect volatility to remain elevated.
Historically, the level of U.S. debt has had no correlation with the performance of the stock or bond markets.
Inflation data has continued to fuel uncertainty about when the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates. It's a question with global implications.
As expected, the Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged at the May meeting, but left the door open to rate cuts later this year if inflation declines.
There are signs that some previous "rolling recessions" are starting to turn into rolling recoveries.
Emerging-market local-currency bonds have rallied sharply since last October, along with other risky segments of the global bond market. However, navigating the market can be challenging.
The Federal Reserve suggested that interest rates likely will move lower, but perhaps not as quickly as markets had been expecting.
Sentiment data is beginning to match relatively strong "hard" economic data.
Although a strong economy has changed expectations about the timing and magnitude of interest rate cuts, we still see room for the Federal Reserve to cut by three-quarters of a point this year.
Economic data has provided encouragement for both stock market bulls and bears.
With the Federal Reserve poised to begin cutting interest rates this year, the dollar may drift generally downward. However, its performance against individual currencies may vary widely.
