The U.S. economic landscape in April was defined by a significant rebound in inflation across both consumer and wholesale sectors, complicating the path for future monetary policy.

Industrial production rose more than expected in April, increasing 0.7% after a 0.3% decline in March. This was higher than the expected 0.3% growth and marks a 1.4% increase compared to one year ago.

Manufacturing activity grew strongly in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing May survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions rose 8.6 points to 19.6, its highest level in over four years.

Nominal retail sales were up 0.49% month-over-month and up 4.87% year-over-year in April. However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.15% month-over-month and up 1.05% year-over-year.

According to the Census Bureau’s Advance Retail Sales Report, consumer spending climbed for the third consecutive month in April. While headline sales rose 0.5% (as expected), this marked a deceleration from March’s 1.6% surge, with much of the gain driven by higher prices at the pump.

Multiple jobholders accounted for 5.2% of civilian employment in April.

March’s Producer Price Index (PPI) data offered a significant reprieve for inflation watchers, as wholesale price growth came in broadly softer than expected.

April's employment report showed that 17.5% of total employed workers were part time and 82.5% of total employed workers were full-time.

What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?

The April release of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) places the year-over-year inflation rate at 3.81%. This marks the first time since May 2023 that inflation is above the post-WWII average of 3.72% and the second consecutive month that the current rate has dipped below the 10-year moving average, which currently sits at 3.24%.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), providing forecasts for energy markets. This article presents the annual production outlooks for crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs), comparing the May 2026 projections against the previous month's estimates.

Total U.S. household debt climbed to a record $18.79 trillion in Q1 2026, a modest 0.1% ($18 billion) increase from the previous quarter. The overall rise was driven by increases across a handful of categories, specifically mortgage and auto loan balances.

Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.

This series has been updated to include the March release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $54,469, down 5.8% from over 50 years ago.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index inched up 0.1 points to 95.9, remaining below the index's historical average for a second straight month.

Inflation surged to 3.8% year-over-year in April, hitting its highest level in nearly three years. The headline figure for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was slightly above the forecast of 3.7%, driven primarily by cost increases in energy, shelter, and food.

Existing home sales were modestly boosted in April, inching up 0.2% following a 2.9% decline in March. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), sales reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million units, falling just short of the projected 4.05 million.

The U.S. labor market demonstrated remarkable endurance in April, with job gains outpacing expectations and private sector expansion reaching its strongest point in over a year. As the Federal Reserve maintains a steady interest rate policy, the focus now turns to upcoming inflation and retail data to gauge the sustainability of this momentum.

There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In April, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 115,000 while the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%.

The latest employment report showed that 115,000 jobs were added in April, down from March's 185,000 gain. This figure was better than the projected addition of 65,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%, as expected.

The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes reached a its all-time high in January 2026. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical bull and bear market trends in market performance.

Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the April 2026 close.

Vehicle sales fell for the first time in three months in April, coming in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 15.920 million units. This represents a 1.5% decline from the previous month and a 7.1% drop from one year ago.

Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation?

Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. This analysis focuses on the P/E10 ratio, key indicator of market valuation, and its correlation with inflation and the 10-year Treasury yield.

The U.S. trade deficit expanded over 4% in March to $60.31B after expanding nearly 6% the previous month. The latest reading barely missed the forecast of -$61.00B.

The U.S. economy ended April with mixed signals: steady interest rates and high Fed dissent met persistent, energy-driven inflation. Despite these hurdles, accelerated Q1 growth and rising consumer confidence provided a buffer against ongoing global instability.

The Federal Reserve concluded its third meeting of the year by holding the federal funds rate (FFR) steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range.

The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q1 2026 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.3%.

Fifth district manufacturing activity increased in April according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index rose three points points to 3, marking the highest level for the index in 20 months. This month's reading was above the forecast of 2.

Last week’s economic data was defined by conflicting signals from the consumer. While retail figures suggest resilience, sentiment levels have plummeted to record lows. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 continued its historic rally as markets prepare for the upcoming Fed decision.

Travel on all roads and streets increased in February. The 12-month moving average was up 0.19% month-over-month and was up 1.07% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.16% month-over-month and up 0.36% year-over-year.

While recent market performance reflects optimism over potential geopolitical de-escalation, underlying economic data reveals a complex landscape of intensifying price pressures and cooling growth. This article examines the major economic news from the week of April 6-10th, 2026.

While recent market performance reflects optimism over potential geopolitical de-escalation, underlying economic data reveals a complex landscape of intensifying price pressures and cooling growth.

While every market downturn is unique, history offers a crucial lens for understanding recovery. This chart series provides a comprehensive overlay of the Four Bad Bears in U.S. history since the $1929$ peak, comparing their recovery paths through the S&P $500$'s close on March 31, 2026.

Heavily influenced by escalating geopolitical conflicts, last week's economic snapshot reveals a sharp erosion of confidence among consumers and investors alike.

When we think of the U.S. government's finances, we often focus on the massive debt. But what about the assets? What does Uncle Sam actually own, and which asset is the largest?

How much wealthier are Americans since the Great Recession? While a look at the headlines shows a staggering 211% increase in household net worth since 2009, adjusting for inflation tells a much different story.

With the NCAA tournament beginning in just a few days, we’ve applied the bracket format to our own research. While economic theory often dictates what should be most important to investors, our reader engagement reveals which topics truly commanded investor attention over the past year.

The Milano-Cortina 2026 Winter Games concluded with a familiar hierarchy at the top of the medal table. But in the world of economic indicators, we rarely look at totals without normalizing for scale. The 2026 Winter Games are no different.

The U.S. economy sent conflicting signals last week as a sharp deceleration in growth collided with unexpectedly stubborn inflation.

The U.S. economy began 2026 with a display of unexpected resilience in the labor market and cooling inflation.

The U.S. labor market showed further signs of cooling last week as private sector hiring slowed and job openings reached their lowest levels in over five years.

The final week of January saw a stark divergence between official policy and the American consumer's outlook. While the Federal Reserve maintained a "solid" view of economic growth, the public’s mood plummeted to a decade-low as sticky amid sticky wholesale inflation.

The U.S. economy continues to display a complex mix of resilience and persistence. As markets brace for next week’s FOMC meeting, this snapshot breaks down the latest shifts in GDP, inflation, and consumer behavior.

As the second half of January begins, the U.S. economy presents a picture of cooling inflation and resilient consumer activity.

This video looks at the long term trends of household net worth using the Q3 2025 Z.1 release from the Federal Reserve.

Now that 2025 has come to an end, let’s take a look at the top 10 most-read charts of the year.

The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of December 12th, the index was at 6.71 with 3 of the 6 components in expansion territory.

Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for November. The unemployment rate inched up to 4.6%, its highest level since 2021. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 64,000.