The market continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience. Lower oil prices, easing Treasury yields, and the relentless buildout of artificial intelligence infrastructure are still providing a favorable backdrop for risk assets.

Yes, we have been there before, only to be disappointed. But the market smells a real settlement to open Hormuz, and WTI oil briefly dipped below 90 for the first time in weeks. If an opening occurs, expect the market to continue its march upward, as the momentum trade gathers strength.

Markets ended last week under pressure as the optimism that had been building around a potential geopolitical breakthrough faded quickly. The China summit did not deliver the progress that had been hoped for. The Boeing aircraft order was smaller than expected; there was no meaningful movement on Iran; the Taiwan issue was brought forward in a way that unsettled markets; and the hoped-for easing of tensions around the Strait of Hormuz did not materialize.

Last week was very strong for the market narrative because the economic data continued to show resilience where it matters most: jobs, earnings, and investor confidence. The latest payroll report was not just stronger than expected; it showed broad private-sector strength, with government jobs actually declining and the prior month revised higher. That is an important distinction.

The Federal Reserve held rates steady as expected last week, but the real story was the shift in tone inside the Committee. Three dissents in favor of moving to a neutral bias are highly unusual, and I do not recall seeing dissents on a bias in this way before.

Markets continue to ebb and flow with every headline out of Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, but the most important message from the markets is resilience. Earnings season is off to a very strong start, with roughly a 75% beat rate, and the AI investment cycle continues to provide a powerful tailwind for equities.

Clearly the path to peace is not as easy as it looked last Friday when the easing in Middle East tensions, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commodity flows, and the sharp retreat in oil prices calmed fears on the most immediate macro threat to equities.

The market remains remarkably resilient, but I have expressed a more cautious outlook in the near term as rising oil prices and a renewed pickup in money growth complicate the inflation outlook.

The economy continues to show resilience, and the March jobs report reinforced that view. Payroll growth came in stronger than expected, prior months were not meaningfully revised away, and the unemployment rate edged lower. Wage growth eased, but the broader message was clear: the labor market remains too firm to support any near-term case for Fed easing.

The market spent the week digesting a modestly hotter PPI print, a pullback in NVIDIA after earnings, and a move in the 10-year Treasury yield below 4 percent.

The recent report by Citrini Research paints a frightening future of massive AI- induced unemployment, crashing stock markets, rising default rates, and a general descent into economic chaos.

Fourth-quarter GDP came in at 1.4%, a sharp markdown from early estimates that were inflated by a temporary collapse in the trade deficit.

Last week delivered exactly what the market needed on the economic data front: confirmation that inflation continues to cool while the labor market remains firmly intact. The CPI came in softer than expected, finally reflecting the long-awaited deceleration in rental costs.

Just eight years ago we were celebrating 25,000, which means equities have doubled in less than a decade. By the Rule of 72, that’s roughly a 9% annual return including dividends—nominal, yes, but still a powerful reminder that equities continue to reward patience even through extraordinary volatility, policy shocks, and repeated predictions of recession.

Last week began with a quiet Fed meeting, but markets quickly received a new catalyst with Trump announcing Kevin Warsh was Trump’s choice to be the next Federal Reserve chair. Warsh was always my first choice. I expect the Senate to confirm him.

The key point is that nothing in the incoming data since December has undermined the Fed’s prior message. The economy remains strong, jobless claims are hovering near 200,000, and recession fears continue to recede.

Markets pushed to new highs again last week as investors looked past headline inflation noise and focused on improving breadth beneath the surface.

Last week delivered some of the more surprising macro data I’ve seen in years: very slow job growth, but stable unemployment, and a sudden surge in output that materially lifts the outlook for earnings heading into 2026.

The market enters 2026 on a fundamentally solid footing, even if the year-end trading days were choppier than the traditional year-end rallies we often see. Economic momentum exiting 2025 was strong.

The market’s big “aha” moment last week was a CPI print that came in meaningfully cooler than expected, followed immediately by the usual chorus that it must be “distorted.”

The Federal Reserve delivered a "dovish version of the hawkish cut," confirmed by the market's rally, new equity highs, and subtle shifts in leadership. The surprising effective end of Quantitative Tightening and a softening inflation framework underscore a clear turn toward accommodation and ample market liquidity.

The recent Thanksgiving week provided a crucial snapshot of the changing economy, highlighted by a shift in holiday shopping to early online sales and a significant drop in the 10-year Treasury yield below 4%.

Markets traded with an unusual mix of strong micro data and fragile macro sentiment last week and nowhere was that clearer than the reaction to Nvidia’s excellent earnings. The fundamentals showed strong demand, a robust product cycle, and clean forward guidance—yet the stock slumped after an early surge.

Markets are balancing this risk against the belief that the impasse will resolve soon, with short‐term “betting markets” still implying only a modest probability of prolonged gridlock ahead of the Thanksgiving travel week.

The Halloween week Fed meeting was more trick than treat for bonds with only a mild and temporary scare for stocks. As soon as Chair Powell signaled the next cut is “not a foregone conclusion – far from it!,” the Dow swooned before recovering about half the drop, while the 10-year drifted higher.

Energy and commodities are not flashing red. Oil ticked up from depressed levels amid new sanctions on certain Russian producers, but on a multi-month basis crude is still lower, and the broader Bloomberg-style commodity basket has been roughly flat over six to nine months.

The 10-year Treasury briefly tested 4% and slipped just below, exactly what you’d expect when credit jitters boost demand for safe collateral. Real yields eased as well, consistent with a modest risk-off bid. Treasuries remain the cleanest hedge when credit fears pop, and that relationship asserted itself again last week.

Markets digested a quiet jobs Friday without the official payrolls report, but the signal from the other indicators was clear enough: the labor market is slowing at the margin but not falling off a cliff.

Stocks and bonds staged a roller coaster on Fed day but finished essentially where they began—an apt metaphor for a market digesting a quarter-point cut, a split dot-plot, and a Chair intent on starting an easing cycle without declaring victory.

Last week’s data sharpened the focus on the pivotal Fed meeting this week. I expect a 25-basis point cut, with real potential for dissents on both sides. Markets are actively gaming out a larger move, but the bar for 50 is still high and would likely require a notably weak retail sales print.

The market got exactly what it needed last week: confirmation that the economy is slowing—not collapsing—and that the Federal Reserve has the green light to start cutting rates. Payroll gains softened, manufacturing remains weak, and broader job slack is showing up with U-6 underemployment rising to 8.1%.

Here’s how I see it going into a critical data week: the inflation gauges landed precisely on expectations while an ugly July trade gap shaves some growth from Q3, and that combination keeps the Fed on a path to cut 25 basis points at the next meeting.

Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole was a proper and long overdue pivot—and the markets immediately rejoiced. This was the dovish signal investors had been hoping for, and even stronger than I expected Powell to deliver.

We received a slew of economic data this past week, but the true market mover lies ahead this Friday: Chair Powell’s upcoming Jackson Hole address.

The first full week of August offered a concise lesson in how quickly the policy calculus can shift when both politics and data align. Equity markets wobbled after reports that Governor Christopher Waller, not Kevin Warsh, is now the front runner for the next Fed chair.

As the Federal Reserve (Fed) conducts its quinquennial review of monetary policy, it must recognize the severe shortcomings of its current policy framework.

Friday’s employment report produced the greatest downward revision in jobs in over half a century (excluding COVID), This is my interpretation of the fallout:

The U.S. economy is still proving resilient despite global tensions and trade barriers. The news of a 15% EU deal is very encouraging, and there were few other restrictions in the preliminary agreement.

Despite continued economic resilience, the political storm brewing between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Powell has taken center stage.

Markets continued their strong run last week before pulling back slightly as a flurry of tariff rhetoric hit the wires. It’s important to understand markets are rallying because they assume these tariff threats are more political posturing than lasting economic policy.

The headline employment figure came in stronger than expected and better than feared following the weak ADP report, but the details were far from a blockbuster.

The U.S. strike on Iran over the weekend has added a modest premium to oil, and in the Sunday evening market, stocks opened only slightly lower. Any resolution to the crisis could send stocks to new all-time highs.

This week’s market resilience in the face of rising geopolitical tensions underscores an important structural shift. The Israeli strikes and broader Middle East dynamics, while concerning, sparked only a modest reaction—a far cry from the volatility such events triggered in past decades.

Last week’s employment report was an important stabilizer for the markets. After concerning revisions and weak ADP numbers raised recession alarms, Friday’s payrolls print calmed fears on labor market deterioration.

The economic narrative took a decisive turn last week. A stunning collapse in the trade deficit suggests we could be looking at near 4% GDP growth in the second quarter—a massive upward revision from the consensus of 2%.

Friday’s market tremor was ignited not by economic data, which brought limited new releases, but by revived political uncertainty—specifically, President Trump’s abrupt reinvigorated tariff threats.

After Friday’s close, Moody’s downgraded U.S. treasuries, as S&P had 14 years ago, in 2011. I criticized the downgrade then…and I do now. The government cannot technically default, as the Fed can always buy the bonds for any auction.

The surprisingly large reduction in mutual tariffs between China and the U.S. announced early Monday morning has sent the markets flying. Trump has softened his approach dramatically and markets are expecting future deals. The base case: everyone at 10%, China at say 20% is still a jump, but at least will likely prevent a recession. Trade and tariffs remain the main focus for markets.

Despite negative GDP growth in Q1 and global trade tensions, markets are showing surprising resilience. Investors are betting tariffs will not bite as hard as feared earlier in April and that deals will emerge to soften the blow.

The markets rebounded strongly last week, holding ground despite the lingering cloud of uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade negotiations. Importantly, while tariffs and dollar weakness are stirring short-term concerns, long-term inflation expectations remain firmly anchored, setting a strong case for the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates.