S&P 500 first quarter 2026 earnings are tracking at nearly 28% year-over-year, with rising profit margins suggesting the strong run could persist.
Iran war-related headlines continue to cause volatility in the markets and oil prices to rise, but our experts remind readers that uncertain times might also present opportunities.
Gambling is rising in popularity, blurring lines between betting vs. investing. Misunderstanding the key differences can endanger financial security.
A properly functioning Strait of Hormuz holds the keys to clarity around the growth, inflation, and market shock that has stemmed from the war in the Middle East.
Iran-related geopolitical risk has boosted stock volatility, especially in sectors like Energy. Uncertainty remains high and there are a range of scenarios for how this conflict could be resolved and how it might affect economic conditions and markets.
Notwithstanding developments in the Iran conflict, there are important leadership shifts still at play within the equity market, which emphasize the importance of diversification.
AI has evolved from concentrated innovation to increased adoption across industries, which has led to a considerable (and somewhat swift) shift in stock market leadership.
Fourth-quarter earnings results have been generally solid so far, albeit a bit weaker relative to prior quarters when it comes to beat rates and price reactions. On the international front, weakening global ties may lead to economic disruption and lasting investment implications. Meanwhile, bond market volatility has remained low despite economic and policy uncertainty.
Earnings results are shaping up to be quite solid this season, albeit a bit weaker relative to prior quarters when it comes to beat rates and price reactions.
Year-end S&P 500 price targets implicitly assume continuity and fail to recognize volatility and macro forces that affect markets throughout any given year.
The capture of Venezuelan President Maduro has been digested well by global markets, which is in keeping with 2025’s theme of massive volatility and solid index-level returns.
Investors are navigating not just uncertainty, but an unstable environment influenced by tariffs and inflation, among other factors. While volatility may increase, there is likely room for another solid year in 2026, especially for fixed income and international stocks
We believe the macro environment will continue to be unstable given policy crosscurrents and a wobbly labor market, but stocks can likely churn higher given a firmer earnings backdrop.
After a gangbuster stock market rally since the early-April lows, many of the prior highfliers have taken a breather amid AI bubble and valuation concerns.
While stock and bond markets wait for U.S. federal data to become available again, private-sector reports suggest lukewarm overall economic growth.
While we wait for federal data to come back online, private sector gauges continue to underscore still-weak manufacturing, resilient services, and mediocre job growth.
Still-healthy demand and disciplined cost control are central themes for earnings, which continue to suggest a mostly resilient economy in light of government data darkness.
The stock and bond markets are taking the government shutdown—and lack of data releases—in stride, but how long the calm might last is an open question.
With official data halted by the U.S. government shutdown, investors turn to private and high-frequency indicators to track jobs, spending, and growth in real time.
AI technology has the potential to profoundly improve industries and markets, but not without some risks—like valuation and profitability—that investors should be aware of.
Greater mega-cap stock exposure carries significant upside risks, but concentration can also work against investors—helping make the case for diversification in portfolios.
A Federal Reserve rate cut won't necessarily lower longer-term bond yields or mortgage rates.
The housing market remains out of sync with the broader economy as affordability is depressed, but an improvement in supply and demand dynamics might be on the horizon.
July inflation data emphasized that tariff-related price pressures are still with us, in addition to some heat in the services sector—making the road to Fed cuts a bit bumpier.
U.S. economic growth slowed decisively in the first half of the year amid concern about rising tariffs, although corporate fundamentals have remained strong.
The market's rebound from the April lows has had a speculative, risky leadership profile—but broader participation suggests the bull can keep running for now.
The earnings bar is fairly low for the second quarter, setting companies up for a potential easy jump—but there will likely be more focus on forward guidance.
Inflation's trend has been favorable this year, but a growing conflict in Iran—combined with already-imposed tariffs—might put upward pressure in prices later this year.
The U.S. economy and stock market face a confluence of challenges in the second half of the year, keeping the bar relatively (but not restrictively) high for outperformance.
Small-cap stocks tend to offer greater growth potential than their large-cap peers, but those returns have yet to materialize consistently. What will it take to turn the tide?
There is still a wide divergence between hard and soft data, and a recovery in the latter is likely to be weak absent a meaningful reduction in policy uncertainty.
The April plunge in stocks ushered in a huge washout in investor sentiment, but more so on the attitudinal side as opposed to the behavioral side.
Recession risk remains elevated, likely only receding with a fuller "pivot" in tariff-related uncertainty. While every recession is unique, history can provide a guide.
Markets have had a wild ride these past couple of weeks, alongside chaotic tariff-related news, with volatility (and its policy triggers) most elevated in the bond market.
Amid a market correction and heightened policy, inflation and growth concerns, valuations are back in the spotlight.
Recession fears have risen sharply of late as economic soft data have rolled over, upping the risk that hard data start to catch down.
Heightened economic uncertainty—propelled mainly by trade policy—has unearthed weakness in the equity market, with most pain felt under the market's surface.
Growth and value are often thought of simplistically, but subsurface details in growth- and value-labeled indexes challenge pre-conceived notions of the factors.
Some soft data metrics have started to rebound sharply and catch back up to relatively resilient hard data, but it's too soon to say whether the gap is definitively closing.
Stocks are coming off another banner year, but strength has bred a frothy sentiment environment, which continues to loom as a risk for likely coming volatility.
The U.S. economy and stock market are entering 2025 from a position of strength, but risks of volatility—especially pertaining to policy—are much higher compared to last year.
Some post-election stock market excitement has receded, but the story of strong breadth—which predated the election—has not changed and continues to support the market for now.
Earnings season is shaping up to be relatively strong so far, but the market will likely continue to shift focus to an increasingly murky sales picture.
This unique bull market is still young relative to history and, for now, supported by relatively healthy breadth and broadening participation.
Historically, staying invested has been, in our view, an effective strategy and one to consider when it comes to election years and beyond.
Investors should be careful what they wish for in hoping for an aggressive Fed rate cutting cycle, given stocks tend to do better when cuts are slow and steady.
Looking back at the 14 Fed rate cycles since 1929, certain patterns emerge. Still, investors instead need to examine what factors are driving the Fed now.
While it's too early to declare small caps' recent outperformance as a meaningful trend shift, we continue to think high-quality companies and industries will likely perform well.
The labor market continues to normalize and soften, but we think any further weakening might push the Fed to cut rates before the 2% inflation target is reached.
This year's tale of two markets has underscored resilience at the index level but considerable weakness at the individual member level, leading to massive performance divergences.
