For the dollar-denominated investor weighing how to position for the back half of 2026, last week tightened a thesis we have been building all year.
On the surface, last week looked engineered to embarrass our positioning. The dollar index climbed to a six-week high above 99.3 by Friday and finished the week roughly flat at those levels.
Our reading is that this is a meaningful positive at the surface — a real-time confirmation that the most pessimistic recession scripts written in March can be set aside — but it is also a print that fails to alter the structural calculus we have been describing all year. The labor market is steady. The trajectory of fiscal policy, monetary credibility, and dollar reserve status is not.
The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at a fresh all-time high of 7,022.95, surpassing the late-January peak and capping a remarkable round trip from the spring selloff.
Gold has fallen roughly 21 percent from its all-time high of nearly $5,595 reached in late January to approximately $4,430 as of this writing, and the prevailing narrative in markets is that this correction reflects a genuine shift in the metal’s outlook
This week’s economic releases have once again underscored the policy dynamics we outlined in our January outlook. President Trump faces a high-stakes midterm election in November, and the incentives are clear: deliver visible growth, moderating inflation, and lower borrowing costs to strengthen the administration’s hand with voters.
The key point, in our view, is that this combination of shocks is not likely to be an isolated occurrence in 2026 or beyond.
The Federal Reserve’s September meeting may be remembered less for the modest quarter-point cut it delivered and more for what it revealed about the state of the institution itself.
The late-summer calm in financial markets shows an undercurrent of optimism. Stocks have been on a tear, with the S&P 500 rebounding strongly to notch roughly 18% gains for the year, while overseas equities are up even more.
This past week, we saw a sweeping change in U.S. trade policy come into effect with the termination of the long-standing “de minimis” exemption on small, imported parcels.
The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report offers clear confirmation that inflation is quietly reasserting itself.
As we move into the second half of 2025, it is an opportune moment to reassess our market outlook and provide updated insights for investors.
The January Employment Situation Report reaffirmed the resilience of the U.S. labor market, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 143,000 and the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.0%.
As we step into 2025, it’s time to revisit our expectations for the markets and provide an updated perspective for investors.
The December PMI report, released on January 5, 2025, indicates that the U.S. services sector continued to grow, albeit at a measured pace, suggesting resilience in certain areas of the economy.
The Federal Reserve’s recent meeting signaled a notable shift in its monetary policy approach.
Here’s our outlook on what to expect and how investors might navigate this new phase.
The latest Employment Situation Report released on October 4, 2024, showed nonfarm payrolls increasing by 254,000 in September, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%.
On September 18, 2024, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.5%, bringing the federal funds rate down to a range of 4.75% to 5%. This move, aimed at managing inflationary pressures while addressing the gradual rise in unemployment, underscores the Fed’s balancing act between fostering economic growth and taming inflation.
