Would I be better off waiting for the Fed to make its move on rates before investing?” “Should I wait to increase duration because a blocked Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices higher and push rates even higher?” “Should I invest in bonds gradually to reduce the risk of missing the rate peak?
Geopolitical risks are still lingering in the background, but the story lately has been all about earnings. A strong 1Q26 season, paired with a steady drumbeat of upbeat management commentary, has helped push the S&P 500 to 21 record highs this year.
Ahead of next week’s May employment report, the summer jobs market is coming into focus as teenagers and students finish the school year. According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, teen hiring from May through July is expected to total just 790,000 jobs this summer, down slightly from 801,000 last summer.
Despite headwinds from rising oil prices, fundamentals have remained strong. The S&P 500 has notched 18 record highs year to date and, more importantly, surpassed our prior target of 7,250. Following a standout 1Q earnings season, we are raising our 2026 earnings per share (EPS) estimate to $326 from $300.
After a slowdown earlier in the year, stronger April and May data support the view that weakness in January and February, followed by a rebound in March, was largely weather-related rather than the start of a broader deterioration in housing demand.
On Friday, May 15, the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.59%, its highest level since February 2025. The 30-year Treasury yield closed near 5.12%, a level last seen in 2007. Those are significant moves because they reflect a repricing of the market’s inflation, growth, and Federal Reserve expectations.
Leadership transitions at the Federal Reserve (Fed) are rare. Only seven individuals have served as Fed chair since the 1970s, underscoring how infrequent turnover is at the Fed’s top job. That rarity is why investors pay close attention when a new chair is appointed, especially when the incoming leader brings a different perspective. Kevin Warsh has been a vocal critic of Fed policy and communication in recent years.
Yes, this time is different, but not because inflation itself is unprecedented. What has fundamentally changed is the macroeconomic starting point. Unlike the post-Global Financial Crisis period, when persistent disinflation and repeated downside surprises dominated policy decisions, the economy today is operating in a world where structural disinflation is no longer the default backdrop.
Psychology plays a larger role in our investing lives than many of us care to admit. Often, when investing, we would be better off being a bit more robotic and a bit less human. The reason behind this is often our feelings influence our decisions in ways that are not always to our advantage.
Firms pulled back sharply on hiring last year as policy uncertainty and higher input costs – driven largely by tariffs – forced a reassessment of risk. Nonfarm payroll growth averaged just 9,700 per month in 2025, down dramatically from 121,600 in 2024. That slowdown reflected a familiar corporate response: When uncertainty rises, labor – the largest and most flexible cost – becomes the primary adjustment mechanism. Rather than expand headcount, firms chose to wait.
With 82% of market cap having reported, the S&P 500 is on track for 27% year-over-year earnings per share (EPS) growth, the strongest since 4Q21. More than 84% have beaten earnings estimates − the most since 1Q21 − while earnings revisions are up 12%, the fastest pace in four years.
The generational divide is a part of the human condition – and the investor condition. It’s not just that one group has more experience than the other, or that one is more eager to make its own way, but that both groups can learn totally different lessons from the same event.
Utilizing a portfolio of individual bonds can provide benefits that are difficult to reproduce via other fixed income investment vehicles. The portfolio can be completely customized to the specifications of an investor, providing a solution that aligns long-term financial goals with personal preferences. Product choice, issuer selection, cash flow, maturity, tax considerations, and credit quality, can all be customized.
While oil prices are likely to remain elevated in the near term, we do not view the current disruption as a lasting supply shock. A diplomatic resolution, or even progress toward one, should help bring prices lower by year-end. Although higher oil prices are a headwind, we believe both the economy and equity markets can absorb the impact with limited damage, as underlying fundamentals remain strong.
Despite repeated wars, equity markets have delivered strong long-term returns, and in some stretches, market performance appears to have coincided with wartime episodes rather neatly. Viewed through the lens of financial markets, the implication seems almost intuitive: wars have not been bad for investors and may even have been supportive.
April showed us just how sensitive markets can be to a small number of powerful forces: energy prices, inflation and geopolitical risk. The conflict in the Middle East dominated headlines, with a ceasefire helping to steady markets even as energy prices remained elevated.
On Friday, the Department of Justice announced it was dropping its investigation of the current Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Senator Thom Tillis was effectively blocking the nomination process from moving forward while the Department of Justice investigation of Powell was ongoing.
Congressional confirmation hearings tend to generate far more noise than signal, and this one was no exception. Between politicians posturing for the cameras in hopes of becoming their party’s next rising star, and nominees exercising extreme caution to avoid missteps under oath, these hearings rarely produce actionable insights.
The index is on the verge of doubling for the first time in this bull market – currently up ~99% – a move that would take just under 3.5 years, slightly faster than the historical average of 3.9 years. While all sectors are in positive territory over this period, leadership has been narrow with only three – technology, communication services and industrials – posting gains above 100%.
New Federal Reserve (Fed) chairs don’t come along often. Since 1980, only five individuals have led the Fed: Jerome Powell is currently in his second term, Janet Yellen served one term and Alan Greenspan famously held the role for more than 18 years.
The U.S. market story this year has been a tug-of-war between sticky inflation, slower growth, and resilient risk appetite. For fixed-income investors, that mix has produced more narrative movement than the 10-year Treasury itself.
After a 9.1% drawdown, the S&P 500 surged 11% over the last 12 trading days to a new record high, breaking above the 7,000 level for the first time.
Headline economic indicators remain resilient as gross domestic product (GDP) continues to expand, the unemployment rate remains low and wage growth has held up better than expected. However, these figures reflect averages, not the lived experience of households.
Yield curves exist for many products and can be interrelated, yet they also carry distinctive characteristics. Normally, long-term rates are higher than short-term rates because investors demand a higher return for lending money over longer periods. This arrangement would create an upward-sloping curve much like the Treasury curves displayed to the right.
The question that is increasingly on everyone’s mind is simple: Is this time different? The answer will hinge squarely on what happens to core inflation, specifically the core Consumer Price Index and the core PCE price index.
Over the past year, markets have been shaped by rapid advances in AI, elevated geopolitical tensions – especially involving Iran – and persistent uncertainty around global trade. In environments like this, successful investing rarely comes from chasing headlines or reacting emotionally. It’s about discipline, staying anchored to fundamentals and executing a clear long‑term game plan.
The famed economist John Maynard Keynes said almost a century ago that “markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” He was referring to the unpredictable nature of investor sentiment: an amorphous, hard-to-define concept that nonetheless plays a major role across various asset classes.
Geopolitical tensions and disruptions to global energy supply often lead to higher gas prices at the pump. Amid the current conflict in Iran, oil prices have surged to above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022.
The US-Iran conflict has altered Iran’s regional influence and, more broadly, has many other consequences. It pressures government relations as well as global and financial market trading.
Total return is the entire amount of income passed to an investor holding a particular security. It annualizes any price change plus any dividends or interest earned over time.
All eyes were turned toward the Middle East throughout the month of March, with the US and Israel’s ongoing conflict with Iran causing energy prices to surge. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, alongside damage to energy infrastructure across the gulf region, caused crude to rise above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022.
Recent weeks have been a whirlwind of headlines centered on the Middle East conflict and rising oil and gas prices, particularly as the conflict enters its fourth full week.
Next week’s releases should help clarify whether recent volatility remains contained or begins to translate into weaker fundamentals.
Rapid advances in artificial intelligence, persistent geopolitical tensions – particularly the conflict in Iran – and ongoing trade uncertainty have kept headlines loud and emotions elevated, ultimately demanding investors remain adaptive and disciplined. In this kind of environment, the biggest mistakes come from reacting to noise rather than fundamentals.
Your financial requirements are multifaceted, necessitating strategies tailored to your specific needs. Tailored lending can be a valuable addition to a high-net-worth individual’s financial plan, helping you optimize cash flow, maximize tax efficiency and realize important estate planning goals.
Although the US now produces more oil than it consumes, it still exports lighter crude and imports heavier crude that US refineries need. As a result, global supply disruptions continue to play an outsized role in determining what US consumers pay at the pump. In short, during geopolitical crises, international oil markets matter more for gasoline prices than domestic production alone.
The key swing factor remains oil prices. If the conflict ends within this window, we still expect only limited impacts on our economic and asset‑class outlooks.
When you start investing, your advisor builds a portfolio aligned with your personal investment objectives. Your target allocation takes into consideration your goals, risk tolerance and time horizon, among other things. Unless something in your life changes, your portfolio should continue to align with your objectives.
In this commentary, I’m not going to try to predict any outcomes or long-term effects but rather want to cover how markets have reacted so far and highlight some opportunities that have been created.
The Fed’s new economic projections are fraught with even more uncertainty. The Middle East conflict is unlikely to derail growth in a meaningful way.
Although the administration has expressed support for a lower federal funds rate, several policy developments since taking office continue to complicate that objective. In particular, recent tariff actions – some of which were legally challenged and later invalidated by the Supreme Court – have contributed to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy.
North is south, south is west, west is east, east is north, up is down, and down is steady. This week’s employment reports have something for everyone, which is precisely why we should interpret them cautiously.
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
While senior military officials on both sides have signaled that the campaign may intensify in the near term, keeping headline risks elevated, we outline below why we believe the conflict is likely to be short-lived, and what that could mean for the economy, the Federal Reserve and financial markets in the weeks ahead.
Investing in financial markets is not for the timid. In a very recent Bond Market Commentary, the Head of Fixed Income Solutions, Nick Goetze, discussed “Preparing for the Storm.”
AI-related disruption has moved to the forefront of market conversations in recent weeks, driving shifts beneath the surface. While the S&P 500 remains near all-time highs, leadership has rotated across sectors as concerns about AI’s impact on future demand and long-term valuations have spread.
Markets could face near-term volatility in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down tariffs levied under the Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The ruling creates a complex landscape as markets adapt to multiple unresolved issues, including raised global tariffs, investigations and potential refunds.
Raymond James Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions
It’s been a busy start to the midterm election year in Washington, marked by a second government shutdown, rising geopolitical tensions - including Iran and Venezuela – and continued uncertainty around tariffs.
Investors have long known balance is a key aspect of portfolio design. It presents a chance to achieve long-term growth and protect hard-earned assets at the same time.
