The artificial intelligence (AI) boom has transitioned from an equity market narrative to a defining force in fixed income. Hyperscalers (Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG/L), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Oracle (ORCL)) are shifting from internal cash flows to substantial bond issuance to fund massive data center, graphics processing unit (GPU), and power infrastructure buildouts.

LPL Research explores how a potential Warsh-led Fed could reshape policy, Treasury markets, and volatility amid rising deficits and shifting demand.

Concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy have moved back into the investment spotlight. Over the past week, both multilateral institutions and prominent policymakers have raised warnings about the potential implications of America’s expanding debt burden for Treasury markets.

LPL Research examines the fixed income space as global bonds broaden yields and reduce U.S. concentration, offering diversified income and resilience via non‑U.S. developed and emerging markets.

Corporate credit markets have become unsettled about the potential for advanced agentic AI tools from firms such as Anthropic and OpenAI to automate functions across legal, analytical, marketing, and sales workflows, effectively targeting the software as a service (SaaS)/enterprise software space.

The Treasury market is stuck between artificial intelligence (AI)-driven job displacement and the ongoing conflict in Iran. Earlier in the year, Treasury yields fell sharply as investors weighed the possibility that accelerated AI adoption could slow economic growth by displacing labor.

LPL Research examines how the Fed is entering 2026 amid constrained conditions and as growth and inflation meet an unsustainable fiscal trajectory.

Municipal bonds enter 2026 as a compelling option for investors: attractive yields, strong fundamentals, and structural changes that continue to reshape the market. After a volatile 2025, marked by Treasury market dislocations and record muni issuance, the outlook for this year suggests more stability — and opportunity.

LPL Research reviews 2025 market predictions: key wins, misses, and lessons across equities, fixed income, and the U.S. economy.

2025 was a good year for most fixed income markets but we’re approaching 2026 with caution. All-in yields are still attractive for most markets, but spreads (the additional compensation for owning riskier debt) are low, suggesting investors aren’t getting paid to take on a lot of credit risk right now.

Following the 2021–2022 inflation shock, the historic negative correlation between stocks and bonds—the foundation of modern portfolio diversification—temporarily broke, fueling debate over whether the "Greenspan Put" era of Fed-induced market stability has ended.

As 2025 nears its final 100 calendar days, market focus is already beginning to turn forward and attempt to reconcile what market drivers could remain in place, and what could change in the first year of the new half-decade. While not an exhaustive list, here’s some of our early keys to 2026.

The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) balance sheet runoff — commonly referred to as quantitative tightening (QT) — is set to conclude on December 1. Since initiating QT, the Fed has reduced its balance sheet by over $2 trillion, largely through the drawdown of its overnight reverse repo program (O/N RRP).

While markets have been focused on the expected trajectory of short-term interest rates through Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut expectations, the Fed’s balance sheet has recently come into focus as well.

In corporate credit markets, early indicators of stress often emerge subtly — not through dramatic dislocations, but through nuanced shifts in borrower behavior and market dynamics.

As expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) cut interest rates last week to take the fed funds rate down to 4.25% (upper bound). Moreover, through the release of the updated dot-plot, the Committee signaled that two more interest rate cuts could be appropriate this year, which would take the fed funds rate down to 3.75% (upper bound).

Global bond markets have sold off recently due to uncertainty surrounding key political changes most notably in France and Japan.

According to recent analysis from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), tariff revenue could meaningfully impact both sides of the bond market pendulum, which on net, could be beneficial to the Treasury market.

As central bankers, economists, and policymakers gathered last weekend in Wyoming’s Grand Teton National Park for the 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, the Federal Reserve (Fed) found itself at a critical juncture marked by political pressures, personnel changes, and internal divisions over monetary policy direction.

Several policy-related risks loom in September and October that may lead to an increase in market volatility. The debt ceiling needs to be raised (likely by mid-October), the government needs to be funded to avoid a shutdown by the end of September...