Contrary to what legal television series portray, verdicts rarely turn on a single moment of drama. They take shape gradually, as evidence accumulates and a broader narrative comes into focus.
Students of game theory often start with a lesson in the prisoner’s dilemma: two agents would gain a better collective outcome by cooperating, but each has an individual incentive to take action that is at their partner’s expense.
Global risks have tilted against both growth and price stability. The ceasefire in the Middle East has brought a measure of calm to financial markets, but it has not resolved the underlying economic shock. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut, supply constraints continue to ripple through energy markets and are increasingly spilling over into downstream sectors.
The Middle East war has entered a fragile ceasefire, offering tentative relief to energy and financial markets. Oil prices have eased and volatility has subsided, feeding hopes that the worst disruptions may be passing.
Each spring, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) releases its World Economic Outlook (WEO), a review of global growth, and the key challenges confronting the world economy. This year’s edition followed the Fund’s usual structure, but the circumstances underneath it had shifted. ]
Beyond keeping party balloons aloft, helium plays a far more serious role in the modern economy. Extracted as a by‑product of natural gas production, it is an essential input across semiconductors, medical imaging, aerospace and defense systems.
The middle is typically not where you want to be. In American sports, teams in the middle of the standings aren’t contenders for either a championship or a high draft choice. The middle seat on an airplane, subject to incursions from either side, is not very comfortable. The middle manager is accountable in every direction, empowered in none.
Sharp moves in energy prices rarely arrive at a convenient moment for policymakers. When shocks occur, governments are left juggling two competing imperatives: cushioning households from rising costs while preserving fiscal credibility. T
The Iran conflict has changed the paths for inflation and central bank actions.
The ongoing Middle East war has once again underscored oil’s strategic importance. Vital resources warrant buffers against disruptions in the form of a strategic reserve.
“Smoke on the Water, Fire in the Sky,” the iconic Deep Purple refrain, endures because it captures a familiar dynamic: threats appear on the horizon before the heat arrives.
The opening months of 2026 have been hectic. A partial inventory of major developments during the year to date would include the removal of Venezuela’s leader; a government investigation into the Chairman of the Federal Reserve; tension with Europe over Greenland; and a broad swath of U.S. tariffs stricken down by the Supreme Court. It’s been a lot to digest.
Last week’s Supreme Court ruling has prompted a re-set of U.S. tariff policy. As an updated strategy is being formulated, it is worth assessing whether the effort is worth sustaining. A high level review suggests that American trade policy over the last year has detracted from economic performance, and should be re-thought.
The year got off to a cold start in the U.S., with many regions experiencing unusually freezing temperatures and precipitation. February has brought relief in both the weather and in economic reports.
With growth in both economies underpinned by trade, neither side has much appetite for a large‑scale economic confrontation. That reality should push both capitals toward calibrated responses rather than actions that sharply raise the costs of retaliation.
After more than two decades of talks, the EU has reached a free trade deal with Mercosur, the South American common market that includes Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay. More recently, Europe concluded an agreement with India, an accord nearly twenty years in the making.
What appeared just months ago to be a stable and predictable transatlantic trade environment now looks conditional. The ground underneath transatlantic trade relations is once again shifting…even though critical portions of it are covered by permafrost.
Long trips rarely end at the airport. We arrive, but our internal clocks lag behind; the first day back is spent acclimating to the new landscape. The global economy enters 2026 in much the same way. Shifting rules of commerce, political stoppages and patchy data have left decision makers disoriented.
Greenland has reemerged as a center of geopolitical attention. Its location midway between Washington and Moscow, combined with its position along maritime routes linking the Arctic and Atlantic Oceans, has long made it a focal point for trade.
Taking time away due to illness is never ideal. Upon return to school or work, we are greeted with all the tasks we did not complete while incapacitated. The recovery may feel worse than the disease.
Mao Zedong once warned that power grows out of the barrel of a gun. In recent decades, global institutions and markets that make kinetic interventions less common. But when those mechanisms fail, power will fill the void.
This year has witnessed some of the most significant policy shifts in recent memory. Economic, strategic and fiscal norms have all been challenged, creating a level of uncertainty that has been hard keep up with.
With great power comes great responsibility. But in the age of artificial intelligence (AI), power means megawatts, not metaphors.
The trade dispute with the U.S. is proving to be a 'full-blown blizzard' for Canada, threatening to freeze cross-border commerce in a deeply integrated relationship. Despite the majority of goods remaining duty-free, new tariffs—reaching 35% in key sectors—have caused a sharp decline in Canadian exports, pushing the nation toward recession.
2025 has not been just a story of U.S. resilience. The Asia-Pacific (APAC) region has weathered storms and stayed firmly on course.
Every innovation follows a lifecycle, from breakthrough to ubiquity to obsolescence. The Edison bulb once lit up the world, transforming how we lived and worked. But it was ultimately replaced by more efficient and sustainable alternatives.
While many lessons have evolved over time, one maxim has never changed for children: look both ways before crossing the street. I reinforced with my children to then look again. We might not see everything on a quick glance, and traffic can change quickly.
Two weeks ago, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued an updated World Economic Outlook. In it, the IMF edged up its global growth forecast for 2025, suggesting that U.S. tariffs haven’t turned out to be as damaging as the Fund anticipated in April.
In high-stakes negotiations, there are usually a series of threats and retreats before the final handshake. Each side uses bargaining chips to shape the outcome of the discussions. But bargaining chips don’t always lead to bargains.
Argentina's latest lifeline does not address the nation's structural issues.
Labor markets are not keeping pace with young adult populations.
France, Britain, and the Fight for Fiscal Credibility
Cuts are in store, but decisions will be weighed carefully.
Relations across the English Channel have stabilized.
China’s economy has propagated itself through branches like trade, finance and infrastructure. But supply chains are where its roots have thickened into trunks, particularly across Southeast Asia.
Switzerland lacks leverage to challenge punitive tariffs.
Trade deals demonstrate that tariffs are here to stay.
Trade tensions spread to the copper and pharmaceutical markets.
U.S. trade policy movements are starting to resemble a soap opera. Following a series of threats, escalations and suspensions, President Trump has extended the tariff deadline to August 1.
An economy cannot subsist on services alone.
Foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries remains intact.
To anyone going through a breakup, just remember this lyric from Bernadette Peters: “If I’m patient the break will mend and one fine morning the hurt will end.”
U.S.-Europe negotiations involve more than just tariffs.
An "end-to-end" approach in process management means handling a task or product from its initial planning stages to the finishing point or delivery, without relying on intermediaries for specific steps. No nation does this better than China.
In the aftermath of the 2018 trade skirmishes with China and the pandemic, nearshoring and friendshoring quickly became buzzwords. But like many other catch phrases, these two may soon fade from usage and memory.
The U.S. may not walk back all of the new tariffs.
For decades, U.S. Treasuries have been universally regarded as a benchmark and a safe haven asset during periods of turmoil.
After the U.S. imposed substantial tariffs on China, Beijing responded with tariffs of its own and with restrictions on exports of seven rare earth minerals. The latter action will be a particular hindrance to American manufacturers.
Asia-Pacific will likely be the hardest hit region from a steep increase in U.S. tariffs.
Measures announced so far this year have pushed the effective U.S. tariff rate above 20%. The astonishing jump has raised import taxes to a level not seen in about a century.
