Economies around the world aren’t just reliant on AI investments for growth. The appreciation of AI stocks has supported spending, which is following “K-shaped” patterns. A significant correction to the valuations of tech leaders would therefore be even more likely to result in recession.
An unexpected rap on your front door is sometimes cause for anxiety. You are not sure who or what is out there, wanting to get in.
Contrary to what legal television series portray, verdicts rarely turn on a single moment of drama. They take shape gradually, as evidence accumulates and a broader narrative comes into focus.
This week marked the passing of former Massachusetts Congressman Barney Frank. His signature legislation, the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010, was the most recent increment in a long-running history of tighter financial regulation. Some of those rules are now coming under scrutiny, with the goal of making bank lending more competitive.
During the American cigar craze of the 1990s, a couple of my neighbors purchased humidors and began collecting. The holy grail for them was Cuban Cohibas, banned from import by longstanding U.S. sanctions.
Nineteenth-century oil processing plants used simple, column distillation of crude oil to produce kerosene, which was in high demand for lighting lamps. The process also yielded a dangerously flammable byproduct called gasoline which had no obvious use.
Kevin Warsh was confirmed this week as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors. As we discussed in a recent article, his transition comes at a delicate time; inflation is rising, and questions about the Fed’s independence are pressing. The honeymoon period will be brief.
The United States has not felt the greatest costs of the Iran conflict, but challenges are becoming visible. Energy prices have risen, with limited prospects for relief. Inflation measures are poised to spread to other product and service categories. Inventories that helped to blunt the impact are depleting; supply chain distortions are accumulating.
Stock markets have been hitting all-time highs and credit spreads remain low, yet higher interest rates and mounting floating-rate debt are straining lower-rated borrowers. This tension is surfacing first in leveraged loans as “quiet defaults” become more common — opening up a dynamic set of opportunities for investors specialized in stressed and distressed assets.
A tariff is a tax on the value of an imported good, paid by the importer at the time the good is taken from an entry port. The tariff is absorbed in some combination of price concessions by the exporter, lower margins for the importer or higher final prices.
With those simple words, Jerome Powell departed his final press conference as Federal Reserve Chair. Powell’s eight years at the helm have been anything but simple, however. A review of his tenure includes some hits, some misses, and some important lessons in leadership.
Artificial intelligence unknowns are creating stress in the market, and we don’t see that ending any time soon. For long-term investors, these stressors can create opportunities.
Students of game theory often start with a lesson in the prisoner’s dilemma: two agents would gain a better collective outcome by cooperating, but each has an individual incentive to take action that is at their partner’s expense.
Automotive enthusiasts have coined the phrase malaise era to describe U.S. vehicles made from roughly 1973 to the early 1980s. New emissions and safety standards, plus high gasoline prices following the 1973 oil crisis, permanently reshaped the market.
Global risks have tilted against both growth and price stability. The ceasefire in the Middle East has brought a measure of calm to financial markets, but it has not resolved the underlying economic shock. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut, supply constraints continue to ripple through energy markets and are increasingly spilling over into downstream sectors.
One of the most important decisions anyone will make in their lives is whether, and whom, to marry. A well-chosen partnership can lead to a happy steady state and help to weather downturns. But even the best long term partnerships can have their ups and downs. For currencies that are wedded to the U.S. dollar, the war in Iran has put some stress into their relationships.
The Middle East war has entered a fragile ceasefire, offering tentative relief to energy and financial markets. Oil prices have eased and volatility has subsided, feeding hopes that the worst disruptions may be passing.
Leaders often have trouble focusing on the longer-term. In the corporate arena, pressure to produce quarterly earnings can truncate planning horizons. In public life, popular opinion and election cycles can impose myopia. It takes a unique set of ingredients to set, and stick to, a lasting vision.
Each spring, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) releases its World Economic Outlook (WEO), a review of global growth, and the key challenges confronting the world economy. This year’s edition followed the Fund’s usual structure, but the circumstances underneath it had shifted. ]
Every employee has heard calls to be more efficient: “Work smarter, not harder.” “Do more with less.” “Don't reinvent the wheel.” These platitudes are not only applicable at the micro level: the modern economy has continually become more efficient. Our use of energy tells the story clearly, and serves as a source of resilience during today’s supply disruptions.
I was working in one of our regional offices this week when the network on our floor experienced a brief outage. People were clearly not prepared for a return to an analog world, and grew increasingly anxious as the minutes ticked by.
Over the past several years, those patterns have been changing. The evolving flows of both tourists and emigrees will have important economic effects.
Beyond keeping party balloons aloft, helium plays a far more serious role in the modern economy. Extracted as a by‑product of natural gas production, it is an essential input across semiconductors, medical imaging, aerospace and defense systems.
The middle is typically not where you want to be. In American sports, teams in the middle of the standings aren’t contenders for either a championship or a high draft choice. The middle seat on an airplane, subject to incursions from either side, is not very comfortable. The middle manager is accountable in every direction, empowered in none.
The war in Iran has been costly, in a number of ways. First and foremost, the humanitarian consequences have been substantial: the price paid by those in harm’s way is immeasurable.
During the pandemic, my wife lived in constant fear that we would run short of paper products, disinfectants and other essentials. I was frequently sent out on reconnaissance missions to replenish supplies.
Rationally, no one should feel happy about an income tax refund. The refund is a correction of a tax overpayment; the recipient effectively gave the government an interest-free loan over the course of the prior year.
Sharp moves in energy prices rarely arrive at a convenient moment for policymakers. When shocks occur, governments are left juggling two competing imperatives: cushioning households from rising costs while preserving fiscal credibility. T
The Iran conflict has changed the paths for inflation and central bank actions.
While agricultural best practices have moved on to other resources, the Guano Wars teach us that nations are willing to go to great lengths to sustain their crops.
The ongoing Middle East war has once again underscored oil’s strategic importance. Vital resources warrant buffers against disruptions in the form of a strategic reserve.
“Smoke on the Water, Fire in the Sky,” the iconic Deep Purple refrain, endures because it captures a familiar dynamic: threats appear on the horizon before the heat arrives.
The whole world will feel the consequences of this conflict.
Kitty Hawk, North Carolina is known as the birthplace of aviation. Success did not come overnight. The Wright Brothers spent three years on the Outer Banks experimenting. While they ultimately took flight, the potential downsides of their endeavor were of constant concern.
The opening months of 2026 have been hectic. A partial inventory of major developments during the year to date would include the removal of Venezuela’s leader; a government investigation into the Chairman of the Federal Reserve; tension with Europe over Greenland; and a broad swath of U.S. tariffs stricken down by the Supreme Court. It’s been a lot to digest.
Last week’s Supreme Court ruling has prompted a re-set of U.S. tariff policy. As an updated strategy is being formulated, it is worth assessing whether the effort is worth sustaining. A high level review suggests that American trade policy over the last year has detracted from economic performance, and should be re-thought.
If trade policy were like a boxing match, the U.S. had hoped tariffs would be a decisive, knockout blow. While many of America’s trading partners reeled, they stayed on their feet and are wearing down their opponent.
The year got off to a cold start in the U.S., with many regions experiencing unusually freezing temperatures and precipitation. February has brought relief in both the weather and in economic reports.
Routine physical checkups are an important component of healthcare. A doctor can identify potential problems and coach the patient toward making healthier choices.
The U.S. economy is all in on artificial intelligence (AI). But there are some natural limitations to progress which will have to be carefully managed.
With growth in both economies underpinned by trade, neither side has much appetite for a large‑scale economic confrontation. That reality should push both capitals toward calibrated responses rather than actions that sharply raise the costs of retaliation.
Browsing real-estate listings is a popular hobby. Home data portals provide hours of free entertainment. Some listings feature bizarre or ostentatious decoration; some are time capsules, preserving a bygone era. Most entries share one shocking feature: the price.
A financial innovation brings new insights and new risks.
After more than two decades of talks, the EU has reached a free trade deal with Mercosur, the South American common market that includes Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay. More recently, Europe concluded an agreement with India, an accord nearly twenty years in the making.
Prices in efficient markets will rapidly adjust to reflect new risks and developments. The year has started with a flurry of geopolitical events, which have created significant volatility in the markets for currencies and commodities.
At the start of my career, the Federal Reserve was content to operate in the shadows. Today, by contrast, the Fed is a much more public entity. And so the fact that the derby to become the next Chairman played out so vividly in the media was not surprising.
Affordability and the cost of living have become frequent topics of conversation. Costs rose, but incomes did not immediately keep pace. The rate of inflation has moderated, but consumers remain sensitive to high prices, worried they are falling behind.
Climatically, Europe has been fortunate: its winter has been moderate so far. But Europe’s need for fuel remains substantial, and the cooling of relations between the U.S. and the European Union (EU) may make it more difficult to keep EU homes and the EU economy warm.
Municipal credit remains strong in 2026 with high reserves and sector resilience. Still, policy changes and economic pressures ahead warrant attention.
A sharp productivity jump shows firms doing more with fewer workers. But the upside surprise also highlights growing risks about how these gains affect the workforce.
